Dados do Trabalho

Título

Ecological niche modelling and predicted geographic distribution of vectors of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introdução

Rio de Janeiro (RJ) has a low number of human cases of American Visceral Leishmaniasis (AVL), this should not be neglected due to the high number of infected dogs, human mortality, vector adaptation, and expansion to urban areas. Leishmaniasis are sensitive to climate and environmental change, vectors species are dependent on climate. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a tool for predicting potential distribution of species based on climatic and environmental features, can also monitor disease spatial trends.

Objetivo (s)

The objective of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis and Migonemyia migonei using ENM, based on climate and environmental variables.

Material e Métodos

Records of the species were obtained from the literature, open biodiversity databases, and unpublished data from the main entomological collections of Brazil. These were associated with non-correlated bioclimatic variables based on temperature and precipitation, altitude, and the Enhanced Vegetation Index. All covariates were standardized to the spatial resolution of 1 km2 and to the extent of RJ. Models were based on algorithms (bioclim, logistic regression, random forest, maximum entropy and support vector machines), with a 10-fold cross-validation approach, and evaluated by the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The predicted distributions were determined by an ensemble approach, considering agreement between model outputs with highest TSS scores. Models were run in R and final maps were designed in QGIS.

Resultados e Conclusão

The database included 42 records of Lu. longipalpis and 88 of Mg. migonei, present in 19 and 31 municipalities of RJ. Model outputs had TSS scores between 0.5 and 1, and the ones with TSS<0.7 were excluded from the final predictions. Lu. longipalpis and Mg. migonei are predicted to co-occur in the metropolitan region, coastal lowland, parts of the green coast and south of the northern region. Mg. migonei is predicted to occur additionally in the middle Paraíba, Center-South, Northwest and southern green coast. The results contribute to the study of the ecology and distribution of AVL vectors in RJ. In recent years, has shown an increase in transmission in urban areas. It is worth mentioning that RJ has only 37 municipalities with entomological survey and records the vectors of AVL, shows a clear need for entomological studies; essential entomological surveillance activities be carried out in areas where the vector has not yet been detected.

Palavras-chave

AVL, ecological niche modelling

Agradecimentos

INCT/MC, FIOCRUZ